Why Trump Alone May Not Sink Down-Ballot Candidates

Over the next several months, we’ll regularly feature guest bloggers from kglobal’s network of trusted partners and subject matter experts. Today, Justin Wallin of Probolsky Research joins us to talk campaigns and down-ballot candidates. Probolsky Research is a California-headquartered firm that specializes in opinion research on public policy, with government, corporate and political practice areas.
Conventional wisdom, which once laughed off Donald Trump’s chances of winning the GOP nomination, now maintains he’ll undermine down-ballot candidates.

The scenario is simple and seems supported by history: Turned off by Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric, Latino voters will turnout in record numbers and vote for a straight Democratic ticket.

In 2012, roughly one-in-ten voters split their ticket, according to the American National Election Study.

But things may not be as one-dimensional this year. Trump may be walling himself off from important general election voters, but there’s reason to believe he alone can’t sink down-ballot GOP candidates. As a political pollster, here’s my thinking on it:

For Justin’s full take on the 2016 presidential election, click here.

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